Tagged: Marcell Ozuna

Doesn’t Marcell Ozuna belong on the D.L.?

Image result for marcell ozuna cardinals

In 2003, Cards’ star Albert Pujols was having a lot of trouble throwing the ball and, as a result, Jim Edmonds and Edgar Renteria had to go deeper into left field to help Pujols get the ball back into the infield whenever he had to throw the ball. The team decided that since Pujols was such a great hitter they needed him in the lineup and the only way to “fix” Pujols during the season was for him to undergo surgery that would remove him from the lineup for several months. They basically played with 8 defenders in order to get Pujols’ bat in the lineup everyday. Ben Godar over at Viva El Birdos did a great write-up on this a couple of years ago. Pujols ended up being a win player despite the defensive limitations.

Yesterday during the Cards’ 6-2 loss to the Mets, a fly ball was hit to left fielder Marcell Ozuna with a runner on 3rd base. Since there was an impending throw home, Tommy Pham ran all the way from center field, cut Ozuna off to catch the ball, and threw the ball toward the plate. This was clearly a ball that should have been played by a left fielder who could get behind the ball and make a strong, accurate throw home and yet Pham kept Ozuna from making that throw.

Here’s the field view of the Mets’ outs yesterday.

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The second red dot from the left is the fly ball in question. On twitter yesterday, here’s what Derrick Goold had to say:

Goold’s article this morning repeated that quote from Pham.

This wasn’t the only instance where Ozuna’s ability to throw was limited, however, as VanHickslestein pointed out on Twitter during yesterday’s game.

Notice how far Paul DeJong goes out to left field to catch Ozuna’s cutoff throw to the plate. Needless to say, DeJong’s relay was very late which shouldn’t be a surprise since he could probably flag down a cab at LaGuardia from where he’s positioned when he catches Ozuna’s throw.

So it’s clear that this is a pre-ordained plan for Ozuna at least for the time-being, as both Pham and DeJong are in on the strategy, much as it was in ’03 when Pujols was relying on Edmonds and Renteria. When asked whether or not Ozuna should be on the D.L., here was Goold’s response:

It’s true that outfielders just aren’t asked to make all that many really important throws. Ozuna was brought to St. Louis to bat in the middle of the order and, though he hasn’t had any hits in the first two games, he is batting 4th and it is just 2 games. Maybe it would be different if he was a shortstop. Still, it’s also true that the team has a left fielder who can’t right now even make the most rudimentary throws. It’s also true that the Cardinal organization is deepest in pitchers and outfielders. Finally, it’s also true that the team has an outfielder playing 1st base and he’s missed 2 pretty fundamental plays at 1st base in the first 2 games of the season. This just isn’t like in 2003 when the gap between Pujols and everyone else was much greater.

There are, as far as I can figure, 3 possible reasons why the team hasn’t DL’d Ozuna.

  1. The team wants the new, young star on the roster and in the lineup for the home opener on Thursday. This is stupid. I can’t believe this could possibly be the reason.
  2. As Goold says, his arm is getting better and he is one of the team’s best hitters and he just doesn’t have to make that many throws from left field. The team can still have his bat in the lineup while his arm heals.
  3. His “sore” arm isn’t going to heal during the season without surgery and the team needs and wants his bat in the lineup and is willing to make some concessions defensively in order to make it happen. This is the Albert Pujols treatment and is easily the worst-case scenario.

We have to be hoping for scenario 2 above. His arm just needs some time to heal and then he can be a fully functioning left fielder as well as the impact hitter in the middle of the Cardinals order that the team traded for over the winter. Still, 10 days on the D.L. isn’t that long to be without Ozuna and the team can put Martinez in the outfield and Gyorko and Yairo Munoz in the infield and not be that much worse over those 8 or 9 games. The team would surely call up Harrison Bader who is ready anyway and the offensive drop off would be very small while giving the team a left fielder who can throw the ball.

Considering the fact that the team is extremely well-positioned to deal with a short D.L. stint by Ozuna, it raises the question as to why he hasn’t been placed on the D.L. given his current limitation. If it is just going to take a little time for the sore arm to heal, why make any throws at all, especially since the team has the depth to handle a short-term loss? Is the answer really that his sore arm isn’t going to heal on its own at all and that the only solution — as it was in 2003 — is surgery and a very lengthy D.L. stint? Given the questionable history of the team’s medical staff, it’s reasonable to wonder how bad Ozuna’s arm really is right now.

Thanks for reading.

Mike Matheny is in the best shape of his life

Spring is here, and though the baseball season is fast approaching, we’ve been inundated with various versions of the “_______________ is in the best shape of his life” stories. You’ve seen them:

“Tommy Pham has been working out all offseason and has dropped his body fat to -3%”

“Adam Wainwright looks like he’s 10 years younger and just hit 90 on the radar!”

“Dexter Fowler’s is ready to be the best defensive right fielder in baseball! Jason Heyward, he’s coming for you.”

Even the dreaded Cubbies have gotten in on the act with their “Kyle Schwarber has dropped 100 pounds and is headed for a 50 SB season.” “He’ll probably be a Gold Glove left fielder!” As an aside, the way in which Cubs’ fans talk about Schwarber makes you wonder how many Schwarber family members actually live in Wrigleyville. Here’s a video showing Cubs’ fans’ reaction to his injury in 2016.

Well, Mike Matheny is also in the best shape of his life. This post is meant to play “Devil’s Advocate” to all the “Matheny should be fired” tweets that have filled the Twittersphere this offseason. (God knows, I’ll tweet something similar to that probably 50 times between now and when the team’s season ends so we may as well start the season with a positive attitude.)

Matheny has never been better equipped to have a good season than he is right now. Over the offseason, the front office made several changes specifically designed to help Matheny be a better manager. Matheny has been criticized by Cardinals’ fans and the St. Louis media for several things throughout his tenure — and rightly so. His handling of the bullpen has been questionable, at best, and he has too often left starters in far too long which has led to the starter losing the game before the pen can even be summoned. He has become over-reliant on specific relievers that he trusts (ahem…Matt Bowman) while he becomes unwilling to risk going to others he’s less certain of. He has been over-reliant on “proven veterans” while leaving younger, often better players (like Tommy Pham) sitting on the bench or playing in Memphis. At times, John Mozeliak had to send younger guys like Pham, Randall Grichuk, and Kolten Wong to the minors just to get them some playing time because Mike Matheny refused to play them.

The front office didn’t exactly buy Matheny a copy of “Managing for Dummies” and quiz him on it over the offseason (or maybe they did; I don’t really know) but they did give him a front office version of Spark Notes to help him get better at the stuff that he needs to improve on. Step 1 was replacing his pitching coach (Derek Lilliquist) with a new one — pitching guru Mike Maddux. The important quote from Mozeliak in the article discussing the fact that Lilliquist wouldn’t return to the Cardinals is this one: “Mozeliak said that they want to rethink the strategy of pitching use and have a pitching coach that is open to the data available and some modern views of how pitchers should be deployed.” That tells me the front office wants to modernize the team’s use of data on their pitchers, their pitch selection, and how their pitchers are deployed. The article from Jenifer Langosch about the hiring of Maddux had the following to say in explaining the change:

Before he started interviewing candidates for the open position, Mozeliak stressed that he was seeking a pitching coach willing to utilize advanced metrics, as well as the ability to “understand modern strategy, modern analytics and how we can leverage that to optimize our staff.”

The intent was to bring in someone who could have a louder voice alongside Matheny, who will be returning for his seventh season as manager. Maddux’s experience and coaching resume offers that sort of instant credibility.

“A louder voice alongside Matheny”…to me, this means that Maddux will have more of a say in pitching changes — when they should occur and which pitchers should be used — than Lilliquist did. Matheny has to recognize that the hiring of such a well-respected pitching coach wrests some control from Matheny.

Two other additions to the coaching staff should help give Matheny the tools he needs to be as successful as he can be. GM John Mozeliak specifically went to Florida to encourage fan and player favorite Jose Oquendo to return to the staff as 3rd base coach. Most everyone recognizes that the team was better fundamentally and defensively when Oquendo was manning the 3rd base coaching box and, since he’s often been mentioned as a potential manager, Matheny has to feel a little pressure from the front office to get things right.

While the change that brought Oquendo back to the team also brought in Willie McGee to the coaching staff, the other truly noteworthy change to the staff was moving Mike Shildt to the bench coach’s role. Shildt is basically the team’s data guy who’ll help Matheny with defensive shifting and in making other baseball decisions during the game. He was management’s addition to the coaching staff a couple of years ago and is being moved into this position by the front office to insure that Matheny hears the voice of the front office during the game.

The front office elected not to replace batting coach and Matheny buddy John Mabry but the other changes in the coaching staff have to send a message to both Matheny and Mabry that the offense needs to improve in 2018. For one thing, Matheny surely knows by now that Pham needs to be in the lineup every day and in center field. Mozeliak went to Las Vegas over the winter to meet with Dexter Fowler to talk to him about playing right field rather than center. There’s another decision taken out of Matheny’s hands.

With the addition of Marcell Ozuna, the emergence of Pham, and the movement of Fowler to right, the outfield is a lot more settled than it was at this time last season. Wong showed last season that he was a solid, league-average second baseman and one who can be in the lineup against lefties, if necessary. Shildt is on staff to help Matheny figure out when and how to deploy Matt Carpenter so that Jose Martinez gets maximum PA’s  and Maddux is on staff to help Matheny with the pitching changes. Oquendo is there to help the team with defense and fundamentals and McGee is around to help improve the team’s base running. So Matheny has never had as many good tools at his disposal to help him make good decisions during the course of the season. Now it’s incumbent on him to utilize those tools to help get all those Cardinals’ fans off his back.

But who am I trying to fool? I’m going to go nuts the first time he insists on leaving Michael Wacha in to face the top of the Cubs’ order for the 3rd time in a tie game.

Thanks for reading.

 

 

More on why I’m so bullish on the OTHER Martinez

I wanted to add something to my post from yesterday where I advocated for using Jose Martinez to be a major part of the team’s infield during 2018. In it, I essentially made the argument (without supporting it) that the ZIPS and Steamer projections for Martinez are selling him short. I felt that needed to be explained.

Back in September, Dave Cameron — then of Fangraphs; now of the San Diego Padres — came to this conclusion about Martinez. He said:

“But if I’m John Mozeliak, I’d probably just keep Martinez and make him my everyday first baseman next year.”

It was this article that really got me starting thinking about Martinez because he referenced a lot of the same sorts of things I mentioned in my post yesterday — that his exit velocity was among the highest in the league, that his xwOBA was 5th highest in baseball, and that — in contrast to what we normally think about these “fluke” type seasons — Martinez was probably actually unlucky in 2017.

About a week ago, Zach Gifford over at Birds on the Black, authored an article entitled, “Tempering Expectations about Marcel Ozuna.” The main idea of the article was that, if Cards’ fans were expecting Ozuna to have a season similar to 2017 or that his career might be on upward trajectory, they might be bitterly disappointed if he actually turns out to be worse. His xwOBA in 2017 was about 26 points lower than his actual wOBA and that he was only 70th in baseball in barrels, according to Baseball Savant. These numbers indicate that Ozuna was very lucky in 2017 and might not be able to repeat it in 2018. The difference, however, is that the ZIPS and Steamer projections both seem to account for that luck — though Steamer is much more bullish on Ozuna than ZIPS.

The projections for Martinez, on the other hand, don’t really appear to factor in Martinez’s unluckiness in their projections. Truthfully, it’s probably much more likely that Martinez has much less of a track record even than Ozuna and so projecting him is much more difficult than projecting Ozuna is. Still, Martinez was a .379 wOBA guy last year when unlucky and he’s projected for around .336 by Steamer and .331 by ZIPS. Xstats does have him projected for a .370 wOBA in 2018.

So, yeah, I think the projections are selling him short and, if so, he’s going to be a really good hitter for the team in 2018 and should be getting a lot more playing time. If he can put up the kind of batting line he did last year — which, to me, isn’t unreasonable considering the fact that he was so unlucky last season — and the team gives him around 500 PA’s by using Matt Carpenter or Jedd Gyorko as the super-sub, he could add another 1 to 1.5 wins to the team’s total. ZIPS has Martinez pegged for 1.1 WAR in 2018 in just 399 PA’s. Give him another 100 PA’s and another 30-40 points of wOBA and he’s now probably a 2.5 WAR player. The team — now projected for 88 wins by Fangraphs — then becomes an 89 or 90 win team and probably 1 player away from being a strong contender for the division title.

Ultimately, it wouldn’t surprise me 1 bit if:

  1. Martinez is the team’s leader in wOBA in 2018 AND
  2. Martinez has more WAR than any of the other Cardinal infielders

But to do those things, Matheny is going to have to write his name in the lineup card regularly.

I’m not a guy who routinely bad-mouths the projections. The people who put those together are much smarter than I am and those projections do a much better job projecting player performance than I ever could. I’m not going to quibble with the projections for Ozuna, Paul DeJong, or any other Cardinal player but I think they’re awfully light on Martinez.

Thanks for reading.

What to expect from Waino

Once the Cards traded for Marcell Ozuna and we got the corner OF and middle of the order hitter we needed, the buzz was that the Cardinals were going to acquire their new closer. To be sure, the 9th inning was a huge problem for the team last season but I couldn’t get over the nagging feeling that the rotation was a little bit short. The goal certainly was to play deep into the postseason and, if the postseason began today, Michael Wacha would be the team’s starter in game 2. Now, I like Wacha just fine and, in fact, Joe Schwarz over at Birds on the Bat recently discussed how good he actually was last year (hint: nearly as good as Carlos Martinez) but he’s still, in my mind, just a 5-6 inning guy who shouldn’t be pitching to anyone a 3rd time through the order. Maybe he should be on the bump in game 3 but not game 2 against Strasburg, Rich Hill, or Lester or Quintana.

I like the addition of Miles Mikolas and Luke Weaver obviously demonstrated that he’s ready to take the next step and become a regular member of the rotation. Martinez is a borderline ace and there’s lots of depth in the upper minors. There’s a lot to like about the team’s rotation but it also seems that 1.) there may not be much margin for error or injury and 2.) the rotation looks a lot like the rest of the roster with a lot of average-ish guys but lacking the stars it needs to be a postseason contender.

Mo’s declaration a few days ago that Luke Gregerson would be the team’s closer if the season started today wasn’t his first pretty shocking declaration of the offseason. The first shocking declaration of the offseason was that Mo was confident in the team’s starting rotation at this point. There’s no uneasiness about the rotation at all? Maybe I’d get it if Alex Reyes would be part of the rotation when he joins the pitching staff in May but all indications are that the team will need every live arm it can find to bolster the pen.

Now, of course, Mo wasn’t as confident as he declared a month ago because it was revealed this week that he spent a lot of time doing legwork attempting to acquire Chris Archer from the Rays, something I’ve been wanting him to do all offseason. Still, those talks reached an impasse and the rotation still has Mikolas, Weaver, and Adam Wainwright following Martinez and Wacha. As curious as it seems, Wainwright is the biggest question mark.

Despite a horrible ERA, Wainwright’s fielding-independent pitching numbers last year weren’t all that bad. His ERA was a ghastly 5.11 but his FIP was just 4.29, giving him 1.5 fWAR in 123.1 innings. He was OK into July and then had a pretty good start results-wise against the Cubs in mid-July and then 3 pretty bad starts in early August when it was clear to anyone watching him that Wainwright wasn’t OK. Both the eye test and the numbers indicated that something was wrong when the P-D revealed that something was wrong with the soon-to-be 36 year-old’s elbow. Waino rested and when he returned his strikeouts and velocity were way down.

Wainwright had elbow surgery in the offseason and turns 37 in August. Still, Steamer projects Wainwright to reach 1.7 WAR in 142 innings and ZIPS projects him for 1.6 WAR in 127 innings. That’s a pretty good rate for a guy who struck out 1 batter in 13 innings in the last 2 months of the season in 2017. Not only is Mozeliak confident about Wainwright’s 2018, but ZIPS and Steamer are pretty confident as well. Where does that confidence come from?

In August and September, Wainwright faced 61 batters and gave up 18 hits and 10 walks…and struck out 1 batter. His K rate was 1.6% and his BB rate was 16.4%. According to Brooks Baseball, his average 4-seam fastball velocity was 90.44 in July, 2017 and 86.68 in August, 2017. He lost 4 mph on his fastball between July and August. It’s pretty clear that something was wrong and all indications are that it had something to do with his elbow.

So where does all the confidence come from? In order for Mo to be confident about the rotation, he’s got to be confident in Wainwright. ZIPS and Steamer seem to be reasonably confident in him so is that where it comes from? Surely the team’s internal projections must be giving Mo something similar to what ZIPS and Steamer are showing. But aren’t all of those projections based on a lot of historical data? Isn’t it possible (or even likely) that all those projections aren’t weighting the last 2 months of 2017 heavily enough?

If he can produce roughly 1.5 WAR in 120-130 innings, I think most Cards’ fans (and coaches, teammates, members of management) would be pretty happy. The team could supplement the other innings with Jack Flaherty and others from the farm and would have a solid 5th man for the rotation. But what if the Wainwright that shows up on Florida mounds in March is the same guy the team saw in August and September? Then, the team has no 5th starter going into the season?

Or maybe it’s worse if Wainwright is OK in March and suggests that it’s possible he might pitch well during the season and then the team runs him out there 8 or 10 times and he’s awful. The team loses 7 or 8 of those games and Wainwright has an ERA around 8.50 or something and now the team has to find a 5th starter.

It seems to me that the best case scenario is probably something around what the projections are projecting — 1.5 to 2 WAR for somewhere between 140 and 160 innings — but the worst case scenario is probably replacement level or even lower and the team loses a bunch of games while they’re figuring out what to do. That’s not what we normally expect from projections. The projections the public sees are usually something around the 50th-percentile projection meaning that a pitcher who projects for 1.5 WAR could have a best case scenario maybe around 3 WAR. But I just don’t see that as Wainwright’s 90th-percentile projection for 2018. Does anyone?

I don’t think it would be the worst thing in the world if Flaherty ended up getting Wainwright’s innings. In fact, ZIPS actually projects Flaherty to be better than Wainwright in 2018 and worth 2.0 WAR. But if he takes Wainwright’s spot, that still eats into the team’s depth and adds another average-ish piece to an average-ish rotation.

The bottom line is that the team still needs to be trying to trade for Chris Archer. Honestly, I feel somewhat better about the bullpen right now than I do the rotation. I realize most of Cardinal nation right now is up in arms (so to speak) about the pen, but a stronger rotation could help alleviate some of those concerns.

Thanks for reading.

 

 

Glad to be Back

A lot of Cards’ fans have been clamoring for the addition of another big hitter, and with good reason. Most of us expected to add Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and instead ended up with Marcell Ozuna. Now, Ozuna’s a really good player in his own right but he’s not Stanton. Stanton not only is a superstar who would’ve transformed the lineup but he’s also under contract for the next several years. Ozuna, on the other hand, only figures to be a Cardinal for the next 2.

The persistent chatter about adding another big bat to the lineup seems primarily driven by 2 things. The first is the fact that the Cardinals have missed the playoffs the last two seasons and fans have seen the team fall behind the loathsome Cubs, who won their first championship in 1008 years (not a typo). We’ve been spoiled by the team’s success and demand a return to its winning ways. The second is that Matt Carpenter has some positional versatility and there are several players on the free agent market who could fit the team’s lineup. The team could add a third baseman, turning Jedd Gyorko into the super-sub a lot of fans believe him to be, leaving Carpenter at first. Another option is to add a first baseman, moving Carp back to his original position at third base.

I’ll admit that the prospect of turning Gyorko into a Ben Zobrist-like super-sub has its allure. First, Gyorko is a strong defensively at both 2B and 3B and has the ability to fill in at SS and 1B in short stints. Considering Kolten Wong‘s relative weakness against lefties, the right-handed Gyorko is a natural platoon partner and then he could bounce around the infield, allowing Carpenter, Paul DeJong, and the new first or third baseman the days off they need to stay healthy and strong for a playoff run. It’s pretty easy to envision Gyorko getting 100+ starts at the 4 positions and 450 or so plate appearances which would make him a big step up over Greg Garcia as the utility infielder.

When there was discussion about a month ago about the prospect of the Cardinals trading for Evan Longoria (especially as part of a Chris Archer trade), it was hard not to see how much depth this would provide the infield. The problem, as lots of people on the internet were all too willing to point out, was that Longoria just wasn’t that big of an upgrade over Gyorko at third. To be sure, the team would gain quite a bit by replacing most of Garcia’s PA’s with Gyorko’s, but it wouldn’t gain much, if anything, by replacing Gyorko’s with Longoria’s.

The free agent market right now is flush with corner infielders, most notably 1B Eric Hosmer, The Cards have been linked to Hosmer as rumors have circulated that he’s received multiple 7 year, $140+million offers. Adding Hosmer would move Carp back to third and makes Gyorko the super-sub. That sounds like a lot of infield depth and would surely make the Cardinals better…but at what price?

If the Cardinals didn’t want to spend $140+ million on this experiment, they could always add a third baseman such as Todd Frazier or Mike Moustakas. Frazier and Moustakas aren’t as good Hosmer but they’re pretty good players in their own right and wouldn’t come with Hosmer’s Scott Boras-driven high price tag. Let’s begin with Hosmer.

Most of the discussion about Hosmer is about whether or not he’s worth the high price tag that Boras has attached to him. Here, Craig Edwards makes the point that $140 million isn’t really out of line (though Travis Sawchik argues that a team wouldn’t really benefit from signing Hosmer to a 7 year deal). Still, for a team sitting where the Cardinals sit on the win curve, where an additional couple of wins could really be the difference between making the playoffs and having its fans lament for another offseason how long it’s been since the Cardinals were part of that elite group, the team may not need to insist on getting a ton of surplus value from a free agent acquisition.

Hosmer, of course, isn’t a superstar but he is a pretty good player and a solid upgrade over Greg Garcia. Adding him to 1B, moving Carpenter across the diamond, and replacing Garcia with Gyorko would surely help the team and perhaps push them into the playoffs. Steamer projects Hosmer to be worth 2.6 WAR next year while ZIPS has him at a paltry 1.9. He was a 4.1 WAR player last year (though -0.1 in 2016) but that was aided by a .351 BABIP. But he’s young, maybe still improving and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that he’s a 3 – 3.5 WAR player in 2018. Fangraphs presently has the Cardinals projected for 88 wins so adding another 3 puts the team in prime playoff position and puts the team right in the thick of the NL Central race.

What about Frazier or Moustakas?  Moustakas is projected for around 2.5 WAR next year (2.5 from ZIPS; 2.7 from Steamer) while Frazier is projected for around 3 (3.5 from ZIPS; 2.3 from Steamer). Like Hosmer, those guys would certainly help.

The question or concern, however, isn’t so much about how any of these players produces in isolation but rather, how much do they add to a team that already has 8 solid starting position players? And, are they worth that addition? For instance, if we assume Hosmer is a 3.5 WAR player and, as one, is worth $140 million over 7 years, that doesn’t mean that he adds 3.5 WAR to the Cardinals. Gyorko, for his part, is projected as at 2.9 WAR so the addition of Hosmer, even at 3.5 WAR, only adds about half a win to the Cards’ starting infield. Now, turning Gyorko into a super-sub is an improvement over Garcia but, in doing so, also reduces his plate appearances. He wouldn’t be a 2.9 WAR player as a super-sub, so maybe 2 WAR is more likely. Because of that, he’s probably only about a 1 win upgrade over Garcia because getting him 450 PA’s reduces Carpenter’s, Wong’s, and DeJong’s as well. It’s an upgrade, to be sure, but probably only about a win and a half, not the 3.5 Boras wants the Cardinals to pay for. All that assumes, also, that the defensively challenged Carpenter would be worth as many WAR as a starting 3B as he is as a starting 1B. Personally, I’m skeptical that’s the case, as he’s a decidedly below-average 3B but a pretty good 1B but maybe the positional adjustment helps it all come out in the wash.

The point is that Hosmer, even if he’s a 3.5 WAR 1B, he’s probably only worth about 1.5 WAR to the Cardinals and, thus, not worth anywhere near $140 million to the Cards. He might be worth that much to the Royals or Padres — where he’d actually be replacing a replacement level player — but that’s not what he’d be doing with the Cardinals.

The same sort of logic applies to Frazier and Moustakas, though Carpenter remains at first base, in that they wouldn’t be replacing a replacement level player. In fact, it’s dubious whether either of them is even an improvement over Gyorko but at least Gyorko is an improvement over Garcia and adding them probably adds 1 win or so to the Cardinals’ total. Is 1 win per year, even where the Cards are on the win curve, worth a 3 year, $45-50 million contract? Questionable, at best. And one opportunity cost of adding a 3B to a multi-year contract this offseason is that it makes attempting to sign, say, Josh Donaldson to a long-term contract next offseason much more difficult. Perhaps the team should stay away from one of these guys for that reason alone.

There’s good and bad to the Cardinals’ roster as it stands today. The good is that the team is pretty solid at all the non-pitching positions. Every starting position player projects (according to ZIPS) for at least 2.1 WAR. The bad is that there really are no superstars in the mold of Stanton. Ozuna is the best the team has and he’s projecting for *only 3.7 WAR.

Because the team is so balanced, therefore, the only real way to improve the lineup is to add a genuine superstar. Hosmer, Moustakas, and Frazier just don’t fit the bill. The guy who does, of course, is Donaldson but the Blue Jays don’t appear to be all that interested in parting with him…at least, not yet.

Finally, I’d like to thank @StlCardsCards and Dave Cameron for inspiring me to get back to writing. I’ve been wanting to do it and needed a little nudge. CardsCards’ advice on Twitter and Dave’s “retirement” from Fangraphs were the inspiration I needed to get back at it. Back when I was writing at http://www.vivaelbirdos.com, I was reading fangraphs religiously trying to learn as much as I can about the game and come up with ideas to write about at VEB. I learned so much from Dave and Fangraphs and being a dedicated reader of that site for the last several years has also helped me appreciate how much I don’t know. Thanks to both of you and to everyone else for reading.