A few days ago, I had this interaction with @GirschMo on Twitter:
It was a flippant, offhand remark I made without thinking but I still think I was right. Let’s see.
So, Moustakas had a lower K rate and a higher ISO in 2017 but Martinez was pretty clearly the better hitter with the caveat that it came in just 307 plate appearances. Still, Martinez had never done this before. Players have fluky seasons all the time. He won’t be able to repeat it. This was probably one of those Bo Hart sort of experiences that Cards’ players have every now and then, right? Maybe not.
Here’s some other data for Martinez in 2017, courtesy of Baseball Savant.
|Player||xwOBA||xwOBA – wOBA||Avg Exit Velo||Avg Launch Angle|
So, as far as the predictive stats go, aside from Moustakas being more likely to hit homers (and popups) than Martinez, Martinez shows all the characteristics of being a better hitter than Moustakas going forward. He hits the ball harder and it was actually Moustakas who was relatively lucky in 2017. If anything, Martinez was relatively unlucky as shown by the fact that his actual wOBA was .025 lower than his xwOBA. In fact, only 4 hitters in the game had a higher xwOBA than Martinez in 2017 — Aaron Judge, Joey Votto, Mike Trout, and J.D. Martinez. That’s pretty good company.
But it’s probably a fluke, right? I mean, he only had 307 PA’s last season and both ZIPS and Steamer take a relatively conservative approach when projecting Martinez for 2018. (ZIPS has him projected for a .331 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ and Steamer has him projected for a .336 wOBA and a 107 wRC+.) Actually, though it was in very few PA’s, his xwOBA in 2016 was .426. The point is that every available indicator tells us that this guy can really hit.
Of course, there are other things to consider. Moustakas can play 3B which would make Jedd Gyorko available for super-sub duty and would also add the left-handed hitter that the team seems to think is necessary. Martinez is limited to corner OF and 1B and isn’t very good at either. On the other hand, Fangraphs projected Moustakas would receive a 5 year, $95 million contract this offseason and MLB Trade Rumors projected him for 5 years and $85 million. Martinez has 5 more years of team control and will make the major league minimum this year. Now, considering the way the market has played out so far this offseason, the fact that the Cards might even be involved in any discussion for Moustakas means he’s going to get less than $85 million but I don’t really see the point even if we’re talking something like 3 years and $50 million.
I get that Moustakas makes the Cardinals somewhat more versatile this year and beyond by offering the lineup another left-handed hitter and allowing Gyorko to be the super-sub. I also get that Matt Carpenter isn’t a very good fielder and probably belongs at 1B, but I feel pretty confident saying that Martinez is a considerably better hitter than Moustakas. If the team wants to use Gyorko as the super-sub, they should just move Carpenter back to 3B and install Martinez at 1B. When they want to sit Martinez, Carp goes to 1B and Gyorko to 3B. The team would be better off spending that Moustakas money on the rotation where there is a more obvious hole.
Get rid of Martinez so that we can pay Moustakas $50+ million? No way, Jose.